Validation

The Startup Validation Checklist: 15 Questions Before You Build Anything

Fast raised $120M and made $600K in revenue. Zume raised $375M for robot pizza that couldn't survive a pothole. These 15 questions would have killed those ideas early.

Maciej DudziakJanuary 18, 20258 min read

The Startup Validation Checklist: 15 Questions Before You Build

In 2022, Fast raised $120 million for one-click checkout. Their annual revenue: $600,000. They shut down before the money ran out because the math would never work.

In 2023, Zume raised $375 million for robot pizza delivery. The cheese kept sliding off during transit. They pivoted to packaging—which contained chemicals banned in food containers. Shut down.

These failures weren't technical. They weren't funding problems. They were validation failures disguised as product failures.

Both companies could have discovered fatal flaws by asking basic questions. They didn't. Or they asked and ignored the answers.

This checklist forces you to confront the questions that kill bad ideas early—and strengthen good ones.

How to Use This Checklist

For each question, score honestly:

Green (2 points): Strong evidence supports yes
Yellow (1 point): Some evidence, significant uncertainty
Red (0 points): Weak evidence or clear no

After 15 questions, total your score:

Score	What It Means
24-30	Strong candidate—validate deeper and build
18-23	Promising but gaps—address weak areas first
12-17	Major concerns—significant pivots likely needed
Below 12	High risk—consider dropping or complete rethink

The checklist only works if you're honest. Founders who lie to themselves waste years.

Part 1: Problem & Market

1. Is this a real problem people experience?

Not a problem you invented. A problem people actively try to solve.

Green: You've talked to 20+ strangers who independently describe this problem. They show emotion when discussing it—frustration, anger, desperation.

Yellow: You've found evidence in forums and reviews but haven't had direct conversations. Or you've talked to a few people who confirmed it.

Red: The problem is your hypothesis. You believe it exists but haven't verified.

Zume believed people wanted pizza cooked during delivery. They didn't test whether that mattered more than pizza arriving intact.

2. How frequently does this problem occur?

Daily problems make better businesses. Frequency drives habit formation and willingness to pay.

Green: Daily or weekly occurrence for target users.

Yellow: Monthly or quarterly.

Red: Once a year or less.

Annual problems (taxes, weddings) can work but need higher prices to compensate for low frequency.

3. Is the market big enough?

"Big enough" depends on your ambitions. A $10M/year niche business needs different scale than a venture-backed moonshot.

Green: Bottom-up calculation shows 100,000+ potential customers at meaningful prices. Or competitor revenue proves the market.

Yellow: Market size is plausible but assumption-heavy. Top-down estimates without validation.

Red: You haven't sized the market. Or the math requires unrealistic capture rate.

4. Is the market growing or shrinking?

Growing markets forgive mistakes. Shrinking markets punish everything.

Green: 10%+ annual growth with structural tailwinds (technology shift, demographic change, regulation).

Yellow: Stable market, or growth from temporary factors.

Red: Market is declining or flat. Growth requires displacing entrenched players.

5. Can you describe your first 100 customers specifically?

"Everyone" is not a customer segment. Specificity enables finding and selling.

Green: You can name job titles, company sizes, demographics, where they spend time online. You could find them this week.

Yellow: General sense of the customer without validated specifics.

Red: You're not sure who would buy.

Part 2: Solution & Competition

6. Is your solution dramatically better than alternatives?

Not incrementally better. People don't switch for 20% improvement. They switch for transformative improvement.

Green: 10x time savings, 10x cost reduction, or entirely new capabilities that weren't possible before.

Yellow: Measurably better but not category-defining.

Red: Marginally better, or "better" is subjective and unquantified.

7. Are people already paying for solutions?

Existing spending proves willingness to pay. No spending is a warning.

Green: Competitors charge meaningful prices and have paying customers. The market already spends money here.

Yellow: Free alternatives dominate, but some premium options exist.

Red: Nobody pays for anything in this space.

When Superhuman entered email, people were paying $70+/year for Evernote, $50/year for Todoist. The willingness to pay for productivity was proven. They just needed a better product.

8. What do competitors do well?

Understanding competitor strengths reveals what you're actually up against.

Green: You can articulate exactly what competitors excel at and have a differentiation strategy.

Yellow: You know competitors exist but haven't analyzed them deeply.

Red: You haven't studied competitors. Or you believe you have none (almost never true).

9. What do competitors do poorly?

This is your wedge—the crack you'll exploit to enter the market.

Green: Competitors have consistent, acknowledged weaknesses you've validated with users.

Yellow: You've identified potential weaknesses but not validated.

Red: Competitors seem strong across the board.

10. Why hasn't this been built before?

If your idea is obvious, someone tried it. Why didn't it work?

Green: You can explain what changed (new technology, regulation, behavior) that makes this possible now.

Yellow: Not sure why it hasn't been built. No evidence of failed attempts.

Red: Similar products tried and failed. You don't know why.

Fast entered a market with dozens of one-click checkout competitors (Bolt, Shop Pay, Apple Pay). They never explained why their approach would win where others hadn't.

Part 3: Business Model & Execution

11. Will the unit economics work?

Revenue per customer must exceed cost to acquire and serve them. This is non-negotiable.

Green: LTV:CAC ratio is 3x or better with realistic, tested assumptions.

Yellow: Estimated economics with significant unknowns.

Red: Haven't modeled unit economics. Or the math only works with aggressive assumptions.

Bird flooded cities with scooters before proving unit economics. Each scooter got stolen, vandalized, or worn out faster than it generated revenue. They accumulated $1.6 billion in losses before bankruptcy.

12. How will you acquire customers?

"We'll figure it out" is not a customer acquisition strategy.

Green: Specific, validated channel that reaches target customers at acceptable cost.

Yellow: Ideas for channels but haven't tested them.

Red: Customer acquisition is unclear.

13. Can you actually build this?

Do you or your team have the skills? Or clear access to people who do?

Green: Team has built similar products. Or fundable plan to hire the right people.

Yellow: Can build MVP but need help to scale.

Red: Required skills are beyond reach.

Zume's cooking-while-driving concept required solving physics problems (cheese sliding, oven stability) they hadn't validated. Building the trucks was possible. Making pizza survive them wasn't.

14. How long can you survive without revenue?

Startups always take longer than expected. Runway matters.

Green: 18+ months runway, or path to revenue within 6 months.

Yellow: 6-12 months with some revenue potential.

Red: Less than 6 months, no clear revenue path.

15. Is the timing right?

Too early kills as reliably as too late. What makes now the right moment?

Green: Clear evidence conditions recently changed in your favor (new technology, regulation, behavior).

Yellow: Timing seems reasonable but not clearly differentiated from past.

Red: No specific reason why now is right.

Scoring Your Idea

Add up your points:

24-30: Strong candidate You've identified something worth building. But strong scores don't mean no risk. Move to deeper validation: more customer conversations, competitive analysis, and MVP testing.

18-23: Promising but gaps You have potential but significant unknowns. Each yellow or red is a research project:

Red on customer definition? More interviews.
Yellow on competition? Deep-dive analysis.
Red on unit economics? Model the math before building.

Don't build until you've addressed reds and turned yellows to greens.

12-17: Major concerns Hard truth: significant pivots likely needed. The core idea might be sound, but something fundamental needs to change—customer segment, solution approach, or business model.

Below 12: Consider dropping Multiple fundamental problems exist. Options: wait for better timing, pivot dramatically, or kill the idea and move on.

Killing early saves you from killing later—after you've invested years.

The Questions Behind the Questions

This checklist is a condensed version of what investors, advisors, and experienced founders ask. When you pitch your idea, these concerns are in their heads.

If you can't answer these questions clearly:

Investors won't fund you
Customers won't buy
You'll struggle to maintain conviction when things get hard

The checklist isn't bureaucracy. It's insurance against building the wrong thing.

Validate Continuously, Not Once

This isn't a one-time exercise. Markets change. Competitors emerge. Your understanding deepens.

Run through it:

Before starting any new idea
When stuck or losing confidence
After major pivots
Quarterly, even when things are going well

Each pass reveals blind spots and strengthens your understanding.